This is going to be an overtly political post. It’s going to ask a set of questions that have come up from Monday’s local government elections. How one answers most, if not all, of these questions will depend on one’s personal political views. And in many cases, there will be strong disagreements. We should acknowledge, indeed celebrate, such disagreements for they are the stuff democracy is built with. We look forward to healthy debate on these questions.
The reader is almost certainly aware that The Dark Knight is the movie of 2008. It is breaking all box office records. The IMDB is calling it the best movie of all time. Pundits are calling it the first film of its type to be considered a genuine piece of art.
We watched it on Friday night. You know it’s a great movie when despite its length of 152 minutes, you never wonder about the time. I didn’t think it was as great as, say, Casablanca. But it is not that far behind. Action sequences rival anything I have ever seen. Heath Ledger’s Joker is right up there with Gabbar Singh. If you haven’t yet, please watch it in the big screen (but don’t take your kid - it shouldn’t be a PG movie).
In addition to being great entertainment, The Dark Knight (and to a lesser extent, Batman Begins, its prequel) is a study in politics. Its politics has been discussed enough in the blogosphere for the New York Times to notice. American bloggers discuss Batman’s relevance for the so-called war on terror, but the underlying political philosophy holds great relevance for contemporary Bangladesh.
Regular readers would be aware of my views about Bangladesh’s current political situation. We had a miliatry coup on 11 Jan 2007. Any initial hope that the coupmakers were not like others that came before them quickly faded, and I am under no illusion about the true intentions of Gen Moeen his mates. While Moeen’s minimum objective at the moment is indemnity against future retribution, beyond this, he would very much like to have a political presence (see here). And behind him, the army seems to have developed corporate ambitions.
I take the above as given, and analyse some scenarios. More probable scenarios are presented first. None of the scenarios augur well for us, but some pose lot bigger danger than others. The more dangerous ones are presented later. I argue that the possibility of a President Moeen armed with a National Security Council is the biggest danger we face.
Just in case you are not familiar with the world of Hindi movies, Jodhaa Akbar is one of the most expensive movies ever made in India. Set in the 16th century, it is based on Emperor Akbar’s relationship with his Rajput wife Jodhaa Bai. This is my take on the movie. Short version: it lacks direction. Long version, read on.
The term ‘dirty war’ refers to the way the Argentine military junta kidnapped, tortured, killed or simply forced the disappearance of its civilian political opponents during the late 1970s. Similar tactics were used by other contemporary Latin American juntas. The crucial difference between a run of the mill counter-insurgency and the Argentine-style dirty war is that the latter involves state sponsored violence against unarmed, civilian political opposition.
Are we in a ‘dirty war’ in Bangladesh?
An IMF team has recently concluded a two-week-long visit to Bangladesh for reviewing the country’s economy. The visit was for the annual ‘Artcile IV’ consultation process. This consultation process involves IMF economists visiting the member country to gather information and hold discussions with bureaucrats, private investors, and other stakeholders including politicians, labor representatives, civil society organizations, and academics. The economists then submit a report to the Fund’s Executive Board. The Board reviews the report and sends it to the country’s government. At this point, a press release is issued. If the government agrees to it, the report itself is published.
As far as I can tell, full reports for Bangladesh were released in 1998, 1999, 2002, 2003, 2005 and 2007. I’m not sure if a full report is forthcoming this year. Here is the official press release. Highlights:
The second point has received considerable attention in the media, and is the focus of this post.
Previously in Mukti’s mid-year political roundup:
That is, Minus 1 won’t work - either both the netris will be gone, or neither will. This post contemplates Minus 2 seriously, and discusses two questions. Firstly, exactly what makes the regime think it can pull off Minus 2? Secondly, should it happen, what might the future hold?
The reader should keep in mind that what follows is the analysis of a likely out-of-touch NRB. I don’t pretend that what I write necessarily reflects the reality of Bangladesh, and would appreciate being enlightened and educated where appropriate.
I live in the outskirts of a semi-desert. It usually doesn’t rain much here. And when it does, it’s seldom anything bigger than a few drizzles. In fact, it didn’t shower at all for a few years in the earlier part of this decade. When it finally rained one day, I couldn’t remember whether I had an umbrella!
This year though it has been different. Pleasantly, it has rained quite regularly. And not just drizzles. Some days, you can actually call it a pour. No, it’s not quite the monsoon. How can it be when the temparature outside is in the single digits? It is, of course, monsoon in Desh. As I look outside my window and see a barren, red earth getting soaked, I imagine clouds gathering over a bustling city.
Dear reader, let’s forget our troubled politics today, and fantasise about a monsoon day in the city.
I finished the last post by noting that forecast is hard, particularly about the future. Anyone who works in the forecasting business - political pundits, macroeconomists, weather guys, doctors - would tell you how the particular event being forecast is a special case that lowers the chance of getting it right. So I won’t bother with making a call about which of the players in Bangladesh’s political dance will survive the next few weeks (the conventional wisdom is that a lot is to happen in the month since Hasina Wajed’s release). Instead, I do three things. First, I show why cutting a deal with either of the netris is sensible for Gen Moeen. Second, I point out that it is not in either netri’s interest to cut a deal - that’s what the title refers to. Third, I wonder what this might mean for the regime’s hand. (more…)
The regular reader will know that I am no fan of Bangladesh’s de facto military government. I am for an immediate end to the emergency and transfer of power to an elected government - there is no ifs and buts here. The devil is, of course, in the details. And one particularly important detail is that we don’t have two players - the regime and the opposition - in the current political game, we have three - the regime, opposition A and opposition B. This makes for a difficult situation. Three players can’t produce a stable equilibrium. Dear reader, three is a crowd, and when this game ends, at least one of the players will be no more. The question is, who will go, and how, and what that might mean.
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